Can DP Gachagua’s Impeachment Woes Scuttle Governor Sakaja’s 2027 Re-election Bid?

As the political landscape in Nairobi County gears up for the 2027 elections, the impending impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua threatens to reshape the dynamics surrounding the gubernatorial race.

Political analysts are closely watching how Gachagua’s situation will impact the ambitions of current Governor Johnson Sakaja and his potential challengers from the Mount Kenya region.

Gachagua’s Impeachment and Its Implications

The looming impeachment process against Gachagua is a critical event that could undermine his capacity to support a candidate from Mount Kenya to challenge Sakaja’s bid for a second term.

Should Gachagua be removed from office, it would diminish his political clout, leaving his ally, Deputy Governor Njoroge Muchiri, without a robust backer.

This predicament raises the question of whether Gachagua can rally enough support to ensure a solid campaign for Muchiri amidst his own political struggles.

Ferdinand Waititu, the former Governor of Kiambu and a close associate of Gachagua, has emphasized the necessity of a Mount Kenya candidate for the Nairobi governorship.

Although he cannot run himself due to past impeachment, Waititu’s influence in rallying support for a Kikuyu candidate remains significant.

The Influence of Former President Uhuru Kenyatta

However, the political calculations for the upcoming gubernatorial race are not solely dependent on Gachagua’s situation. Former President Uhuru Kenyatta, now at the helm of the Jubilee Party, is solidifying his hold over the party’s direction.

Reports indicate that Uhuru, along with David Murathe and Jeremiah Kioni, is actively vetting candidates for the Nairobi governorship.

Former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth has surfaced as a serious contender, especially following the electorate’s rejection of Polycap Igathe in the previous elections.

Kenyatta’s influence in the party could disrupt Gachagua’s plans for a Kikuyu candidate, particularly if he decides to back Kenneth, who has a reputation as a capable leader.

This development highlights the internal competition within the Mount Kenya bloc, raising questions about their collective strategy in the face of a fragmented political landscape.

Raila Odinga’s AUC Candidacy and Its Impact

Adding another layer of complexity, Raila Odinga’s pursuit of the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship could significantly affect the political alliances heading into the 2027 elections.

Should Odinga succeed in securing the position, it is believed that his party, ODM, may consider aligning with President Ruto, potentially endorsing Sakaja for re-election.

Odinga’s earlier commitment to support Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi for the ODM nomination suggests a shift in strategy could be on the horizon, especially if it means consolidating power in Nairobi.

The possibility of ODM backing Sakaja—while selecting a running mate from either the Mount Kenya region or Ukambani—could drastically alter the electoral dynamics.

Conclusion: A Fractured Political Landscape

As the political chess game unfolds in Nairobi County, the implications of Gachagua’s impeachment, the machinations of Uhuru Kenyatta, and the ambitions of Raila Odinga are intertwining in unpredictable ways.

For Governor Johnson Sakaja, the prospect of facing a united opposition from Mount Kenya, alongside the potential for unexpected alliances, presents both challenges and opportunities.

With the election drawing closer, it remains to be seen whether Gachagua’s political misfortunes will indeed scuttle Sakaja’s bid or whether he will leverage the complexities of the situation to secure his position in the capital’s leadership.

The evolving narrative will keep political observers on edge, eager to see how these powerful figures navigate the turbulent waters of Kenyan politics.