Cracks in Opposition? ODM at 20 as Key Leaders Keep Off

By: John Peter

The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) marked its 20th anniversary on Friday, celebrating two decades of political dominance and resilience.

However, the conspicuous absence of key opposition figures fueled speculation about shifting dynamics within Kenya’s political landscape.

The event, attended by ODM loyalists, showcased the party’s legacy in championing democracy and governance reforms. Party leader Raila Odinga hailed ODM’s contributions to Kenya’s politics, yet the absence of Martha Karua (Narc-Kenya), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Eugene Wamalwa (DAP-K), and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua did not go unnoticed.

These figures, crucial in shaping opposition politics, appear to be charting independent paths.

Political analysts suggest these leaders are distancing themselves from an ODM-led coalition.

Karua has rebranded Narc-Kenya, Wamalwa launched DAP-K, and Kalonzo is revamping Wiper. Gachagua, increasingly alienated from President William Ruto’s UDA, plans to unveil his new political party in May.

These moves point to an imminent realignment in opposition politics.

Sources close to the leaders indicate growing frustration with Odinga’s dominance in opposition politics. While Odinga has been the face of resistance for decades, some in the opposition question whether a new approach is needed.

“ODM has done a lot for this country, but it’s time to ask if a new chapter needs to be written. We cannot afford to keep fighting the same battles without evolving politically,” said a close ally of one of the absent leaders.

The opposition now faces critical questions: Are these leaders breaking away from Odinga’s influence? Will they form a new alliance to challenge Ruto separately from ODM? Disagreements over political strategy and decision-making have reportedly widened the rift.

Karua has often opposed Odinga’s handshake deals, Kalonzo has grown weary of playing second fiddle, and Wamalwa’s formation of DAP-K signals a bid to consolidate the Western Kenya voting bloc. Gachagua, meanwhile, is crafting a political home for dissatisfied Mt. Kenya leaders.

With the 2027 general elections approaching, the opposition appears at a crossroads. Some analysts argue that fragmentation may not necessarily weaken its prospects; rather, new alliances could provide fresh alternatives for voters beyond the Odinga-Ruto dominance.

“Kenyan politics is dynamic. What we are seeing now is the repositioning of key figures ahead of the next elections. If these leaders unite in a structured coalition, they could present a formidable challenge to Ruto’s reelection bid,” said political analyst Dr. Peter Obuya.