Legal Battle Over Reconciliation Talks Spells Trouble for Raila

Azimio la Umoja leader, Mr. Raila Odinga, is facing strong headwinds from both within and outside the coalition due to growing divisions among its top leaders.

One of the challenges involves disagreements brewing among the coalition’s bigwigs, which analysts describe as a threat to the political future of the former Prime Minister.

These disputes come as his supporters are urging him to organize protests, claiming that the government has failed to reduce the cost of living. Meanwhile, President William Ruto is planning to invade Raila’s Nyanza stronghold next week.

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The wrangles that are cornering Mr. Raila within the Azimio alliance involve leader of Narc-Kenya, Ms. Martha Karua, and Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni on one side, against Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Defense Minister Eugene Wamalwa, Spokesperson for the Azimio Secretariat Prof. Makau Mutua, and former Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria.

While Raila is urging his followers to remain calm until the negotiations are completed, Karua and Kioni believe that these talks will not benefit the citizens.

Another factor putting Raila in a difficult position is a case filed in court by three Kenyans challenging the legitimacy of the ongoing Reconciliation Talks at Bomas, Nairobi.

Karua and Kioni have faced strong criticism from their fellow Azimio leaders for forming the Kamwene political movement, aimed at “advocating for the interests of the residents of Mount Kenya.”

Last Saturday, Karua and Prof. Mutua engaged in a heated exchange on social media after the scholar urged Kioni to withdraw from the talks, claiming they would yield no meaningful results.

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Kioni leads the Technical Team of the Azimio alliance in the negotiations.

“My friend, Jeremiah Kioni, should resign from his position as the leader of the Azimio Technical Team. He has repeatedly stated that these talks are a waste of time,” Prof. Mutua stated.

In response, Karua defended Kioni, telling Prof. Mutua that his comments were his personal opinions.

Yesterday, Prof. Mutua insisted that Kioni must withdraw from the talks in an article he writes every Sunday in the Daily Nation newspaper.

During the installation of Bishop Paul Kariuki as the new auxiliary bishop of the Catholic Diocese of Embu last Saturday, Musyoka and Wamalwa emphasized the need for politicians to consider the country’s interests in their statements.

“The Bomas talks are progressing well. We have no challenges. We urge leaders to give the talks a chance,” said Musyoka, in a statement seemingly directed at Karua and her allies.

In addition, Kioni and Karua have faced strong opposition for their decision to create the Kamwene movement. While they maintain that the movement aims to be the “voice of Mount Kenya residents,” some Azimio leaders in the region, such as Wa Iria and former Ndia MP Dr. Njogu Barua, have vehemently criticized it.

Wa Iria stated that there were no consultations regarding the establishment of the Kamwene movement and criticized it for being “self-serving.”

“The actual meaning of ‘Kamwene’ is selfishness; it’s about me and what concerns me alone. Its purpose is to perpetuate divisions and political selfishness,” said Wa Iria, adding that he would not join the movement.

Regarding the lawsuit filed by three Kenyans – Mr. Issa Elanyi, Patrick Karani, and Paul Ngweywo – analysts see it as a significant threat to Raila’s political future and the reconciliation talks. The three complainants argue that the process used to establish the talks committee did not adhere to the law.

They also criticize the funds allocated to the committee, arguing that it contravenes the Constitution and the National Assembly’s procedures.

The estimated cost of the talks is Ksh 106 million. Yesterday, ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi accused the Azimio faction of plotting to disrupt the talks.

“Those going to court are exercising their rights. However, why do you say you want the talks while opposing them on the other hand through people going to court to challenge them? That’s hypocrisy. They have gone to court through their agents. Why do you want to play mind games with Kenyans?” Mudavadi wondered.

Analysts consider this direction a significant threat to Raila, as any court decisions will have a political impact on him.

“If the court annuls the talks, it will greatly affect Raila because it will disrupt his political plans for 2027. Clearly, he is using them as a basis to consolidate his 2027 political cards, despite insisting that he doesn’t aim for any share of the government,” said Kipkorir Mutai, a political analyst.