November 16, 2024

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Why Raila, Ruto rivalry might influence voting patterns in the Central region

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There are several factors that might affect the turnout, the issue of presidential candidates is a factor in a sense that Mount Kenya east are demanding the position and in case they fail to get they won’t turn out to vote,”

Immediate former Moro MP Jacob Macharia

By Newsline

The latest war of words pitting the former prime minister Raila Odinga and deputy president William Ruto will lead to a split in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region ahead of the August 9th general election.

Among the counties in the region consists of Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Meru, Nyandarua, Laikipia and by extension Nakuru.

The former prime minister is banking on president Uhuru Kenyatta’s support and regional tycoons to campaign for his candidature while Ruto through his allies in the region has termed him as a statehouse project and urged Kenyans should reject him.

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DP Ruto, whose relationship with his boss, President Kenyatta, has been deteriorating since the March 9, 2018 handshake between President Kenyatta and Odinga, has concentrated his efforts on the Mt Kenya region, meeting with leaders from the area as well as holding political campaigns there.

He has further rallied his supporters to vote on of their own terming himself best candidate as he campaigned for Uhuru in both 2013 and 2017 respectively.

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The charm offensive by both Odinga and Ruto has, however, not been received so well by the leaders from the region who have been making demands they say must be met before backing any candidate for the country’s top job.

However, sustained forays by ODM leader Raila Odinga, the President’s involvement in this year’s election may lead to voter apathy and the recent mushrooming of fringe parties may also turn the region into a political battleground making it competitive.

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Since multi-party democracy in the early 1990s, the Mount Kenya region has never backed the presidential bid of an outsider candidate. In 1992, the region produced two key candidates: Kenneth Matiba (deceased) of Ford Asili and Mwai Kibaki of the Democratic Party (DP).

The two however lost to Daniel Moi’s independence party KANU which won 36% of the vote. Matiba and Kibaki got 26% and 19% respectively. Combined, they had garnered 45% of the total vote. This should have been enough to dethrone Moi, but intimidation and corruption ensured the status quo remained.

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Analysts are of the view that the same scenario will be witnessed in August considering Murang’a governor Mwangi Wa Iria through Usawa Kwa Wote Party and National assembly speaker Justin Muturi through the Democratic party have expressed interest to succeed Uhuru.

Speaking during a television interview on Tuesday, Kieni Member of parliament and Jubilee party director of election Kanini Kega said that the region is firmly behind President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga.

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He accepted the region has been divided between Ruto and Raila Odinga but maintained before august things will be different and Raila will be the leading horse in the area.

“About two months ago, I said Raila is the best to succeed Uhuru and I faced a lot of hostility but now the debate has changed as out of ten people from Mount Kenya, six are supporting Mr Odinga,” he said.

He added that on Wednesday, Raila Odinga will visit the Moro constituency accompanied by the Jubilee team to meet the Kikuyu community in the area.

He said that Raila Odinga has shown willingness to have a Mount Kenya candidate as his deputy president. 

Immediate former Moro MP Jacob Macharia said that the Mount Kenya region will experience a low voter turnout as the election doesn’t concern the community.

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He said that the fact that the region won’t have a presidential candidate, might make voters feel there is no need to vote.

Macharia added that the lack of an impactful contestant from Mt Kenya could drive the turnout down.

 “There are several factors that might affect the turnout, the issue of presidential candidates is a factor in a sense that Mount Kenya east are demanding the position and in case they fail to get they won’t turn out to vote,” Macharia said.

He added that the Mount Kenya community will have to leave Raila and Ruto to battle on their own. He claimed that the two are friends despite holding different political ideologies.

 “If there is a low turnout countrywide, there will be low turnout in Mt Kenya,” he said.

EALA MP Simon Mbugua, a close ally to deputy president William Ruto has refuted the claim that there will an apathy.

Mbugua said that the Mount Kenya region turn out will be bigger compared to 2017 to shake off the Kigeugeu tag (betrayal community).

He said that the fact that the community promised Ruto support in 2017, they will come out and support him.

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He said that the contest will be very stiff compared to previous in the past election in the history of Mount Kenya.

“Don’t forget the notion that people from Mount Kenya had about Raila that he is bad and Uhuru planted it in their mind and they hold it dearly and they will come out to punish Uhuru for betraying his deputy,” Mbugua said.

Political analyst and columnist said have said that going by its record, the region has voted as a block but this time around things might be different compared to previous elections.

Mr Kasembeli has said that, in 2013 and 2017, the region gave Uhuru Kenyatta more than 90 per cent and it is this percentage that Deputy President William Ruto has been seeking to inherit.

“There won’t be voter apathy in the region because of the stiff competition in this year’s election because it is a transitional election, “he said.

He adds that President Uhuru Kenyatta through the introduction of handshake and coalition of Jubilee and ODM has managed to dramatically weaken Ruto’s grip in the region.

He said that Ruto’s supporters through the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) will leave no stone unturned as they campaign for him while the staunch supporters of Uhuru Kenyatta will safeguard his votes.

Mr Kasembeli has said that the election will be between President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy in Mount Kenya but not Raila Odinga.

“The Mt Kenya voter in August 9th general election may react negatively to anybody introduced by President Kenyatta because such an introduction may be misconstrued to mean a continuation of the Uhuruto administration’s policies, “He said.

Both Raila Odinga and William Ruto worked together in the Pentagon—a powerful five-member ODM summit akin to a politburo and arguably the most potent political machine in Kenyan history.

The Pentagon comprised Raila, Ruto, Musalia, Tourism CS Najib Balala and the late Cabinet Minister Joe Nyaga. Narc leader Charity Ngilu.

It’s only Musalia Mudavadi within Pentagon who is working with William Ruto while the rest have been campaigning for Mr Odinga’s presidential bid.